Clarendon is, as you well know, largely apolitical, so far be it from us to excoriate the government for what others, less temperate than us, might call myopic political point scoring. Regardless, we were upset to read of two more independent schools in Derbyshire closing a fortnight ago. Perhaps one should be hard-nosed about failing business being allowed to fail, but we can’t help feel saddened at the institutions being closed, the wonderful staff being laid off and the pupils being uprooted.
Sticking faithfully to our apolitical stance (hem hem), we wanted to sound the alarm and, dare we, judge Labour’s VAT policy on its own terms.
Since VAT was added to school fees in January of this year, 54 independent schools have closed their doors for the last time, with around 20 announcing future closures. The FT also reported that as many as 100 more may close within the next three years. From the key figures we’ve spoken to in the industry this number seems accurate or conservative. VAT and cessation of business rate relief is seeming more like an extinction event than a bump in the road.
The problem – apart from the obvious – is that Labour was accounting for 35,000 students joining state eduction. However, this number was not immediate – it was to be the steady state increase over a decade or so. They had only accounted for 3000 or so joining in year 1 of the policy. With so many independent schools closing, many parents are left with no choice but to enter the state system. If this trend continues, the state system will be inundated with new students costing the tax payer around £8000 a year each. Obviously, this figure is offset by the increased revenues, but less schools will mean less tax revenues.
Furthermore, the government will need more teachers to teach this influx. They promised 6,500 more teachers over their parliamentary term. Over one year in and the net number is around 300, with plenty of new secondary teachers but lots of primary school teachers quitting (bad news, given the precarious state of so many independent prep schools).
Many of the schools that have closed were already in financial difficulty – so there is no need to panic for most of our parents, we’re pleased to say – but it is a troubling time for many independent schools, especially away from the affluent south east.
Sorry we couldn’t be more cheerful. Still, at least President Trump looks to have brought peace to Ukraine.
Oh bugger, we were meant to be being apolitical.
